The Simplest Way to Predict Someone's Behavior

Last week I asked the introverts on my mailing list for feedback on a few questions – and the response I got was overwhelming.

A lot of people reached out to share their thoughts, stories, and opinions, and it was incredibly interesting.

One of the topics that came up several times was the worry of how they would be treated by others.

“I always wonder how people will react to me if I show up at a party or event. Or if I speak my mind and share my opinions,” someone said. “I mean. I know they’re my friends, but I still find it really hard to predict and I often expect the worst.”

Does this ever happen to you? Do you get concerned about how someone is going to act or react to something?

I’m sure it does because it’s a very common concern. 

But, in the vast majority of cases, it’s a very unnecessary concern because predicting someone’s behavior with significant (if not perfect) accuracy is actually very easy–once we learn how.

The technique for this is based on this one simple truth:

People will act the way they have acted in the past.

Very rarely do people change how they act around others. At least not unless the fundamental nature of their relationship changes.

The people who have been kind, mean, or distracted in the past will likely act in those ways the next time you see them.

If your boss normally doesn’t mind if you come in late, he’s likely to not mind tomorrow, either. 

If your new partner normally talks you up in social settings, they’re likely to speak well of you when introducing you to their parents.

If your colleague has a tendency to interrupt you during meetings, they’re likely to do that at the next one as well.

This is so obvious to our logical brain that when I mention it, most people kind of shrug and go "duh, obviously."

But still, people don't consciously practice this technique. 

Running late for work, they panic about their boss yelling at them - whether she has before or not. Before meeting their partner’s family, they obsess about what the parents might already think of them.

But if they paused and focused on what they know–the usual behavior of the people involved–they will be able to predict with very good odds what’s going to happen.

Obviously, their boss might have an off day and get upset, or their colleague might have a sore throat and not say a word during the meeting. But these are rare exceptions and, therefore, a waste of time and energy to obsess about.

And besides, odds are they'll make up for it once they're feeling more like themselves again.

So do this whenever you worry about how someone will behave.

Stop thinking about the future, and think back to the past.

What is your typical experience with them in situations that are similar to the upcoming one?

Whatever that is should be what you prepare for. Everything else is tantamount to packing snow boots for your tropical vacation.

If you practice this regularly, you’ll start to notice how often you’re able to correctly predict behavior. This, in turn, will help you approach social situations with more confidence and less stress. 

Challenge yourself to do this every day for the next two weeks, and I have no doubt that you’ll discover how much mental energy you save when you trust in the consistency of human behavior.